中俄东线即将通气，国内市场影响几何？上海石油天然气交易中心管道气交易部负责人熊伟与厦门大学中国能源政策研究院院长林伯强接受《中国日报》采访，分享了观点。

中国石油天然气集团公司9月5日表示：在接下来的几个月，中俄东线将通气，这将满足中国东北部区域、京津冀区域、长三角等多个区域对于清洁能源的需求。

Natural gas will start flowing through the China-Russia east route natural gas pipeline from next month, and will help meet clean energy demand in several places across Northeast China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Yangtze River Delta area, China National Petroleum Corp said on Thursday.

中俄东线项目中，中国境内管道全长5111公里，从最北部的黑龙江省到最东部的上海市，横跨8各省，一个直辖市。

Together with the Russian part of the project, or the 3,000-kilometer Power of Siberia pipeline, the pipeline is expected to pump 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to China annually when it reaches full capacity, under a 30-year agreement between Russian company Gazprom and China's CNPC.

中俄东线将联通俄罗斯境内的西伯利亚力量管道，全长3000余公里。根据中石油与俄气的协议，在该管道满负荷运行的情况下，俄罗斯每年有望向中国提供380亿立方米的天然气。

The Chinese part of the China-Russia east route pipeline project stretches 5,111 kilometers throughout eight provinces andone municipality from Heilongjiang province in the north to Shanghai in the east.

根据国家发改委的数据，该供气量相当于2018年全国用气量的13.6%，2018年全国天然气消费量为2803亿立方米。

That amounts to about 13.6 percent of China's gas consumption in 2018, or 280.3 billion cubic meters, according to data from the National Development and Reform Commission.

专家们表示，进口管道气意味着中、俄两国能源合作不断深入，使得中国天然气进口更加多样化，并增强了中国天然气供应以及国家能源安全。

Experts said gas deliveries from the pipeline, which signify deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia, will diversify China's gas import sources and bolster China's gas supply and energy security.

“该管道建成后，运输能力将达到每年380亿立方米，这将是中国第二大进口管道气项目。”上海石油天然气交易中心管道气交易部负责人熊伟说。

"With a transmission capacity of 38 billion cubic meters, the pipeline is China's second-largest pipeline project for gas imports," said Xiong Wei, assistant director of the pipeline gas trading department at Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

“该管道不仅可以保证目标区域的天然气供应，而且还将加快管道基础设施的互联互通，并在市场中充分竞争以降低天然气价格有着重要意义。”

"It will notonly increase gas supplies to targeted areas, but also has great significance in improving pipeline infrastructure construction and interconnection, as well as enticing market competition to reduce gas costs."

熊伟表示，中俄东线管道有助于避免现有进口管道气的不确定性，也避免了在天气恶劣情况下液态天然气船运所经常面临的困难以及障碍；与此同时，中国2018年进口天然气1255亿立方米，进口天然气依存度达到了45%，其中管道气占进口量的42%。

Gas deliveries from the new pipeline can help hedge uncertainties about existing gas pipelines, and are also free from the obstacles that liquid natural gas transports often face during bad weather, he said, adding China imported 125.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2018, with a foreign reliance of 45 percent, among which 42 percent were from pipeline transmission.

厦门大学中国能源政策研究院院长林伯强表示，大量管道气进口工程有助于相关地区(京津冀、长三角等地区)的低成本天然气供应。

Lin Boqiang, head of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University, said the large quantity of natural gas flowing through the pipeline project will ensure gas supplies at low costs in related areas, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Yangtze River Delta area.

林伯强表示，中国仍然具有巨大的天然气消费空间。在中国，清洁能源消费仅占一次性能源消费的8%，但是一些发达国家，清洁能源消费可占一次性能源消费的20%以上。

China still has massive room for natural gas consumption to grow, as the clean energy makes up about 8 percent of the country's primary energy consumption, while in many developed countries the figure is above 20 percent, he said.

熊伟认为，该项目将首先使中国东北受益，中国东北目前主要依靠大庆油田，吉林油田，大连LNG接收站和秦皇岛-沈阳管道的天然气供应，而天然气的使用程度却远远落后于国内平均水平。

The project will first benefit Northeast China, which currently relieson natural gas supplies primarily from Daqing Oilfield, Jilin Oilfields, Dalian LNG Terminal, and Qinhuangdao-Shenyang pipeline, and lags far behind national level regarding use of natural gas, according to Xiong.

熊伟表示，2018年东北地区天然气占一次能源消费总量仅为4.7%，远低于全国8%的平均水平。由于中俄东线可以提供价格相对低的天然气供应，所以对于促进该地区的天然气使用有着积极意义。

Natural gas made up only 4.7 percent of primary energy consumption in Northeast China in 2018, in contrast with the national level of 8 percent, he said, adding it is positive for the region to increase natural gas utilization as the China-Russia pipeline will provide relatively low-cost natural gas to the area.

这两位专家表示，中俄两国在能源合作方面具有巨大潜力，这是因为俄罗斯拥有丰富的天然气资源，而中国拥有巨大的市场，也因为作为邻国，它们不需要考虑第三方的影响就可以达成建设和合作的基本框架。

Both experts said Russia and China have great potential in energy cooperation, because Russia has abundant natural gas resources while China has a huge market, and also because as neighboring countries, they don't need to consider a third-party's influence to cooperate and build related infrastructure.

熊伟表示，根据俄罗斯2035年的能源战略草案，到2035年，俄罗斯的天然气产量和出口量将显着增加，而出口量的增加主要集中在亚洲市场。

There will be significant increase in Russia's natural gas output and exports by 2035, with increased exports mainly pivoting to the Asia market, according to the country's draft energy strategy up to 2035, Xiong said.

然而，林伯强建议，中国应该增加非常规天然气的勘探和开发已减少对天然气进口的依赖。

However, Lin suggests China strengthen unconventional natural gas development to reduce relianceon natural gas imports.

熊伟表示，市场机制应在天然气运输以及销售环节发挥更大的作用。

Xiong said market mechanisms should play a larger role to make the most of natural gas transmission and sale networks.

本文来源：中国日报

本文作者：刘志华

张钧然/译